BOG BLOG : 4 – 11 JULY 2013



Extreme Reading

Broadband does not a smart city make – And the end of lawyers, doctors, teachers and accountants as we know them, Rohit Talwar, Futurist.

LONDON, UK, Jun 12, 2013/ Troy Media/ – Most people talking about the intelligent or smart city are focusing on the relatively narrow aspects of ensuring widespread broadband provision. . . Preparing for transformational change

On June 7th Fast Future launched a series of workshops on major issues. Our guest expert – Global Futurist Jose Cordeiro – led a diverse and highly engaged audience on an exploration of Human Enhancement, Technology of the Future and the Future of Technology. – Jose came prepared with at least a week’s work of material to tackle literally any topic that might have arisen and delivered a phenomenal set of insights and highly provocative views on how science and technology advances would transform our world out of all recognition within 30 years. I will provide a more detailed overview of the event in a future column, but five of the most interesting talking points raised were:

  • The end of humanity: Jose argued that the acceleration and convergence of developments in nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and the cognitive sciences would see the emergence of new transhuman and entirely synthetic lifeforms – with humanity as we know it dying out in the next 30 years.
  • The death of death: Jose reported that experiments in life extension have delivered a three-fold increase in the life expectancy of mice and a six-fold increase for certain worms. At the same time Dmitry Itsov’s four stage 2045 Avatar project (Editor’s Note: Read Russian entrepreneur Dmitry Itskov dreams of cybernetic immortality) has set out ambitious goals of ensuring immortality.
  • Jobless Progress: The new industries on which many economies are pinning their future hopes are predicated on the growth of key knowledge-based sectors such as mobile communications, biotechnology, 3D manufacture and robotics.
  • A wake-up call: There was a lot of debate about how to get leaders, middle managers and professionals from doctors to lawyers and accountants to understand the transformative potential of these accelerating scientific and technological developments. Jose argued that advances in artificial intelligence (AI) in particular could simply eliminate a lot of professional roles as we currently understand them.
  • Repurposing the classroom: There was widespread agreement that the traditional role of the teacher as purveyor of information could all but disappear in less than 10 years. Instead, emphasis would be placed on the other roles that schools and teachers would need to play in teaching children how to learn, conduct research, solve problems, navigate complexity, work under uncertainty and in nurturing their development as individuals, citizens and members of a global community.

Gartner announces rankings of its 2013 Supply Chain Top 25

Gartner, Inc. has released the findings from its ninth annual Supply Chain Top 25. The goal of the Supply Chain Top 25 research initiative is to raise awareness of the supply chain discipline and how it impacts the business. Analysts announced the findings from this year’s research at the Gartner Supply Chain Executive Conference, which is being held here at the JW Marriott Desert Ridge Resort and Spa through today. “At the heart of the Supply Chain Top 25 is the notion of demand-driven leadership,” said Debra Hofman, managing vice president at Gartner. “We’ve been researching and writing about demand-driven practices since 2003, highlighting the journey companies are taking: from the old ‘push’ model of supply chain to one that integrates demand, supply and product into a value network that orchestrates a profitable response to ever-shifting changes in demand.”

Table 1: The Gartner Supply Chain Top 25 for 2013    –     Rank Company Peer Opinion (1)

1 Apple
2 McDonald’s 
4 Unilever  
5 Intel 
6 P&G 
7 Cisco Systems  
8 Samsung Electronics 
9 Coca Cola Company 
10 Colgate-Palmolive 
11 Dell 1409 342 6.2% 
12 Inditex 
13 Wal-Mart Stores 
14 Nike 
15 Starbucks 
16 PepsiCo 
17 H&M 
18 Caterpillar 
19 3M 999 
20 Lenovo Group 
21 Nestlé 
22 Ford Motor 
23 Cummins 
24 Qualcomm 
25 Johnson & Johnson 

Source Gartner (May 2013)  

Africa railway developments market study, SCI Verkehr

Over decades, Africa has been at the edge of railway developments and railway markets. The interest in its rich mineral resources has turned it into one of the most dynamic market regions. The development of this challenging market is the major topic of the new market study “The African Rail Market by SCI Verkehr. The industrial markets for rolling stock, infrastructure and system technology presently amount to EUR 3.6 billion and will grow by 8.7% per annum on average to EUR 5.4 billion 2017.   In the segment of new developments and upgrades of networks and fleets, the expected annual growth is almost twice as high (+15.1% per annum). The strongest growth comes from the Sub-Saharan Region. In many ways, railway infrastructure is a key factor for social and economic development. Between isolated mine-port links, extensive upgrades and extensions of existing networks and creation of completely new ones, various developments are being projected and are partly already under construction. The study contains a number of fact sheets picturing in detail what is to be expected, when it will be built and what it will cost.  The demand for railway services will grow significantly. Passenger and freight services will at least double their present growth rates over the next 5 years, still leaving numerous major cities without effective public transport.

Africa   –  High-Speed Rail , Conventional Railway , Metro , Light Rail Transit 

Measuring Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In Africa, Ugandan Diaspora News Team

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government spending, investments, and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.  However, GDP has its shortcomings, “it can’t differentiate between spending on good things (education) and terrible things (cigarettes), and fails to account for the value of social cohesion, education, health, leisure, a clean environment — in other words, as Robert Kennedy once put it, GDP measures everything except that which makes life worthwhile.” GDP also fails to account for activities that don’t have an explicit market price attached to them, for example, the value of a mum or dad raising a kid at home. – GDP only measures output, and in Africa, South Africa at about $408 billion in GDP leads the other African countries in producing the most output:

Nigeria comes second at about $244 billion, followed by Egypt at $230 billion, Algeria at $189 billion, Angola at $104 billion, and Morocco at $100 billion. Uganda ranks #21 at $17 billion 

The top 5 countries South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Angola, and Morocco account for about 60% of Africa’s $1,900 billion total GDP. Compared to Africa’s $1900 billion total GDP, the US produces approximately $15000 billion GDP, the Euro area $13000 billion, China $7200 billion, Japan $5800 billion, Brazil $2400 billion, and India $1800 billion GDP…    When comparing GDP across nations, it’s better to use the GDP per capita measure. GDP per capita is the total GDP divided by the total population of the defined country. GDP is thus a standardized measure and allows for fair comparison across nations. If nation A and nation B both produce $1000 GDP, but nation A has 1 person in it, while nation B has 10 people in it, nation A with a GDP per capita of $1000 (1000/1) would be more productive than nation B which has a GDP per capita of $100 (1000/10). –

• On a GDP per capita basis South Africa slips to 6th place, Nigeria to 20th place, and Uganda to #41.
• Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Seychelles, Mauritius and Botswana filter to the top.



The Lone Ranger, long since retired, makes an unpleasant discovery

Ackn. The Far side / G Larson

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